加裕養豬評論——美國和加拿大存欄上升3%
Pork Commentary
總裁兼CEOJim Long
President-CEO Genesus Inc.
2017年3月13日
March 13, 2017
美國和加拿大存欄上升3%
United States and Canada Inventory Up 3%
一年兩次，
美國和加拿大在2016年12月的所有生豬存欄是8520萬頭。較2015年12月上升了3%，較2014年12月上升了5%。種豬存欄734萬頭，比1年前上升了1%，比2014年上升了2%……市場生豬存欄7790萬頭，比去年上升了4%，比2014年上升了6%。半年度生豬產量為7870萬頭，較2015年上升了2%，
Twice a year, the United and Canadian Swine Inventories are combined together. It is a significant number, as the two countries are in essence one large inventory and production base. It's a virtually integrated continental market. Last week, the latest report was released.
United States and Canadian Inventory of all hogs and pigs for December 2016 was 85.2 million head. This was up 3% from December 2015, and up 5% from December 2014. The breeding inventory, at 7.34 million head, was up 1% from a year ago and 2% from 2014. Market hog inventory, at 77.9 million head, was up 4% from last year and up 6% from 2014. The semi-annual pig crop at 78.7 million head was up 2% from 2015, and up 5% from 2014. Sow farrowing during this period totalled 7.34 million, up 2% from last year and up 1 % from 2014.
以上資料表明聯合育種群體同比去年增加了59000頭母豬。不算是大規模擴張。這一數字在加拿大同比增加了14000頭。我們發現有趣的是合計生豬產量同比上升了2%，大約是180萬頭。平均到26周，那麼每週約有70000多頭！
在這生豬產量進入市場的時候，隨著美國正在收割當季農作物，我們預估新鮮農作物將會增加生豬產量到每週近200000頭。70000到200000，我們的加工業產能將會更加富足，並且能夠穩定豬肉價格。
The numbers show the combined breeding herd has climbed some 59,000 sows year over year. Not exactly a massive expansion. In that number is an increase of 14,000 in Canada year over year. What we find interesting is the combined pig crop was up 2% or about 1.8 million head year over year. Divided by 26 weeks, that would be about 70,000 more per week.
With the new US harvesting plants coming on stream when this pig crop is going to market, we calculate that the new plants will increase capacity almost 200,000 head a week. 70,000 for 200,000, seems to us packer capacity will be plentiful and this should support hog prices.
其他觀察
Other Observations
“1月美國豬肉出口持續強勁。墨西哥仍然保持巨星勢頭，比去年同期增加了35.8%。出口到所有國家的豬肉總量在2017年1月上漲了19%，總額是45700萬磅。除墨西哥以外，其他主要成員是韓國（上漲33%，
”US Pork Exports continued strong in January. Mexico continues to be a superstar, taking 35.8% more than the same month a year ago. The total pork exports to all countries up 19% from January 2017, total was 457 million pounds. Other major players other than Mexico were South Korea （up 33% at 49 million pounds）， and of course Japan at 98 million pounds. China was 34 million, about the same as a year ago. China's huge import increases have mostly been captured by European suppliers.
“上周美國肉仔雞群體爆發了幾例禽流感。雞群已經被銷毀。韓國豬肉進口，正如早前所見，價格突升。加裕公司是韓國主要種豬供應商之一。我們與韓國市場保持密切聯繫。過去幾個月在韓國發生的禽流感已經損失了35%的仔雞，雞蛋，和肉雞。現在不僅禽肉和禽蛋的短缺，
”There have been a couple Avian Flu outbreaks in the USA in chicken broiler flocks in the last week. Flocks have been destroyed. South Korean pork imports, as you saw earlier, have jumped. Genesus is a major supplier of swine genetics to South Korea. We have continual contact with that market. Avian flu in South Korea has destroyed in the last few months 35% of the chicken, egg, and broiler flocks. There is not only a shortage of poultry meat and eggs, but some consumers are fearful of dying if they eat poultry. Last week, South Korean hog price was 4,707 KRW/kg, or $1.31 US liveweight/lb. That's $350 USD for a market hog. What happens if Avian Flu gets rolling into US broiler flocks? Doubt it, but if it does, a Black Swan moment.
“發佈即時資訊。當你讀到本報導時，我們已經通過Topigs-Norsvin高管證實，Topigs-Norsvin在上一財政年度已經損失了691萬美元。上周，加裕公司人員面對Topigs-Norsvin同事怨聲載道，
”Shoot the messenger. As you have read in this commentary, Topigs-Norsvin had a financial loss of $6.91 million US in their last fiscal year. This we had verified by senior Topigs-Norsvin executives. This past week, Genesus personnel were confronted by Topigs-Norsvin associates complaining profusely that we had the audacity to tell the world of their financial situation. Not that it wasn't true, but that we had the nerve to tell the truth. Indeed, it must be hard for Topigs-Norsvin, who claims to be the second largest genetic company in the world, to explain to its stakeholders how they lost $6.91 million USD while the largest genetic company （PIC） had profits in the $50 million USD range in the same industry. Shoot the messenger - Topigs-Norsvin people should get a mirror, focus on their own reality.
在西班牙的加裕核心場- Catalana de Pinsos
Genesus Nucleus in Spain
Genesus - Catalana de Pinsos
加裕公司十分高興地宣佈，在西班牙的Catalana de Pinsos作為我們的合作夥伴之一，用於生產種豬，現在可以購買來自“La Tor Nucleus Unit”核心場的後備母豬。有了Catalana de Pinsos，我們正在生產加裕高健康純種母豬，不久之後，來自“Raurell Multiplier Unit”父母代豬場的加裕F1代後備銷往西班牙和歐洲。
由Ballus家族在1968年建立的Catalana de Pinsos，已經將農場致力於純種後備和F1代後備生產。他們的農場位於西班牙Catalonia封閉的Pyrenees 山脈地區。
Manel Ballus總裁，同Fermin Xixos總經理一起，成功地監管13000頭母豬生產。Catalana de Pinsos支援創新、科學，和高效地養豬生產，並且他們已經同加裕公司從這個項目中發現了這點。
加裕公司十分自豪的宣佈我們擁有來自Catalana de Pinsos的後備母豬可供購買。
Genesus is pleased to announce that gilts are now available for purchase as a part of our partnership with Catalana de Pinsos for the production of breeding stock in Spain from “La Tor Nucleus Unit”。 With Catalana de Pinsos, we have been producing our Genesus high health pure maternal lines, and soon, our Genesus F1 gilts from “Raurell Multiplier Unit” for Spain and Europe.
Established in 1968 by the Ballus family, Catalana de Pinsos has farms dedicated to both purebred gilts and F1 gilts production. Their farms are located in isolation in the Pyrenees Mountains region of Catalonia, Spain.
CEO Manel Ballus, along with his General Manager Fermin Xixos, successfully oversee 13,000 sows of production. Catalana de Pinsos favour innovation, science, and efficiency in swine production and they have found it with Genesus for this project.
Genesus is happy to announce that we have gilts available for purchase from Catalana de Pinsos.
For more information, please contact Mercedes Vega:
Telephone: +34-630-61-7001
Email: mvega@genesus.com
加裕公司十分高興地宣佈，在西班牙的Catalana de Pinsos作為我們的合作夥伴之一，用於生產種豬，現在可以購買來自“La Tor Nucleus Unit”核心場的後備母豬。有了Catalana de Pinsos，我們正在生產加裕高健康純種母豬，不久之後，來自“Raurell Multiplier Unit”父母代豬場的加裕F1代後備銷往西班牙和歐洲。
由Ballus家族在1968年建立的Catalana de Pinsos，已經將農場致力於純種後備和F1代後備生產。他們的農場位於西班牙Catalonia封閉的Pyrenees 山脈地區。
Manel Ballus總裁，同Fermin Xixos總經理一起，成功地監管13000頭母豬生產。Catalana de Pinsos支援創新、科學，和高效地養豬生產，並且他們已經同加裕公司從這個項目中發現了這點。
加裕公司十分自豪的宣佈我們擁有來自Catalana de Pinsos的後備母豬可供購買。
Genesus is pleased to announce that gilts are now available for purchase as a part of our partnership with Catalana de Pinsos for the production of breeding stock in Spain from “La Tor Nucleus Unit”。 With Catalana de Pinsos, we have been producing our Genesus high health pure maternal lines, and soon, our Genesus F1 gilts from “Raurell Multiplier Unit” for Spain and Europe.
Established in 1968 by the Ballus family, Catalana de Pinsos has farms dedicated to both purebred gilts and F1 gilts production. Their farms are located in isolation in the Pyrenees Mountains region of Catalonia, Spain.
CEO Manel Ballus, along with his General Manager Fermin Xixos, successfully oversee 13,000 sows of production. Catalana de Pinsos favour innovation, science, and efficiency in swine production and they have found it with Genesus for this project.
Genesus is happy to announce that we have gilts available for purchase from Catalana de Pinsos.
For more information, please contact Mercedes Vega:
Telephone: +34-630-61-7001
Email: mvega@genesus.com