Britain is already worse off because of Brexit
英國退歐已經致使情況更糟了
（Brexit:對英國脫歐的戲稱）
by Mark Thompson
What will Brexit mean for the British economy?
英國退歐對國內經濟意味著什麼?
Executives, forecasters and bankers have been trying to answer that question for at least two years. The U.K. government has done its own analysis, and a leaked draft Tuesday makes for ugly reading.
這兩年， 高管、預測者和銀行家們都在試圖回答這個問題。
BuzzFeed reported that the government analysis suggests Brexit will reduce economic growth by between 2% and 8% over 15 years.
BuzzFeed報導， 英國政府的分析顯示， 脫歐將致使15年內經濟增長率降低2%到8%。
"This was initial work, not approved by ministers, which only considers off-the-shelf scenarios. No analysis was made of the bespoke [trade] arrangement we seek as a matter of government policy," a spokesman for Prime Minister Theresa May told reporters.
“初步工作沒有得到部長們的批准， 他們只考慮現狀。 英國首相德蕾莎梅的發言人對記者說， “我們尋求的是政府政策的定制安排， 並沒有進行任何分析。 ”
But never mind the future, there's already plenty of evidence that the June 2016 vote by Britain to leave the European Union -- by far its biggest export market -- is already causing damage. And that's with at least a year of fraught negotiations on the uncertain relationship between the U.K. and EU still to come.
但是， 不必等待未來， 已經有大量證據表明， 2016年6月英國脫歐公投已經造成了損害， 因為已經遠離迄今為止最大的出口市場——歐盟。 至少在這一年的時間裡， 英國和歐盟之間的不確定關係仍在進行。
Here's where Britain is already feeling the pain:
下述是英國已經感受到了痛苦的地方:
Slower growth
更慢的經濟增長
The U.K. economy performed better than some analysts expected in 2017. A synchronized upswing in the global economy helped. But Britain crashed out of the top five economies, as it lagged behind other major industrial nations.
英國經濟表現好于一些分析師在2017年的預期。 全球經濟的同步增長對其經濟增長有很大幫助。
Europe grew by 2.5% last year, its fastest pace in a decade and faster even than President Trump's America. The U.K. was left trailing as growth slowed to 1.8%.
歐洲去年經濟增長了2.5%， 是十年來最快的增速， 甚至超過了特朗普掌控的美國。 在經濟增長放緩至1.8%的情況下， 英國經濟狀況是落後的。
"The decision to leave the European Union is having a noticeable impact on the economic outlook," the Bank of England said in November. "Uncertainties associated with Brexit are weighing on domestic activity, which has slowed even as global growth has risen significantly."
“離開歐盟的決定對英國經濟前景產生了明顯的影響， ”英國央行在11月表示。 “與英國脫歐相關的不確定性正在拖累國內經濟活動， 儘管全球經濟增長顯著上升， 但國內經濟活動已經放緩。 ”
The central bank's governor, Mark Carney, reportedly told a private meeting in Davos, Switzerland, last week that Brexit was already costing the U.K. about £10 billion ($14 billion) a year.
據報導， 英國央行行長馬克卡尼上周在瑞士達沃斯的一次私人會議上表示， 英國脫歐已使英國每年損失約100億歐元(140億美元)。
The independent Office of Budget Responsibility believes weak productivity means growth won't pick up until 2021.
獨立的預算責任辦公室認為， 生產效率的疲軟意味著， 到2021年，
Falling living standards
生活水準不斷下降
The impact of the Brexit vote has been felt most acutely in rising prices. A slump in the value of the pound after the referendum raised the price of many imported goods, pushing up inflation.
英國脫歐公投的影響在物價上漲中最為顯著。 公投後英鎊的貶值導致許多進口商品價格上漲， 增加了通貨膨脹。
But wages have failed to keep pace with rising prices, despite record employment levels, and that means Brits are feeling the squeeze every time they shop.
但儘管就業率達到了創紀錄的水準， 工資卻未能跟上物價上漲的步伐， 這意味著英國人每次購物時都會感到手頭拮据。
The most recent data published earlier this month showed inflation running at 3%, and average wages rising by just 2.5%. The Bank of England squeezed consumers further by hiking interest rates in November for the first time in a decade.
本月早些時候公佈的最新資料顯示， 通貨膨脹率為3%， 平均工資僅上漲了2.5%。 英國央行在11月進行了加息， 這是10年來英國首次加息。
For struggling British families, there's little prospect of relief any time soon. Two influential reports published late last year suggest workers may go nearly two decades without a real pay raise.
對於苦苦掙扎的英國家庭來說， 短期內幾乎沒有任何緩解的希望。 去年年底發佈的兩份有影響力的報告顯示， 工人們可能會在沒有真正漲工資的情況下工作近二十年。
The Resolution Foundation, a non-partisan think tank, has predicted that average earnings, when adjusted for inflation, are likely to stay below the level they hit before the global financial crisis until the start of 2025. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, a leading independent economic research institute, has given a similarly dire warning.
無黨派智庫“決議基金會”預測， 經通脹因素調整後的平均收入水準，
Losing vital workers
失去重要的工人
Unemployment has been falling steadily and now stands at just 4.3%, the lowest it has been since 1975. That means the labor market is very tight. Companies and government agencies are struggling to fill vacancies.
失業率一直在穩步下降， 目前僅為4.3%， 為1975年以來的最低水準。 這意味著勞動力市場非常緊張。 公司和政府機構正在努力填補空缺。
Brexit is making matters worse, particularly for sectors of the economy that rely heavily on European workers.
英國脫歐讓情況更糟， 尤其是對嚴重依賴歐洲工人的企業。
Some 10% of hospital doctors and nearly 6% of all National Health Service staff come from the EU. The NHS has found it much harder to recruit from the EU -- particularly nurses -- since the Brexit vote.
約有10%的醫院醫生和近6%的國家衛生服務人員來自歐盟。 自英國脫歐公投以來， NHS發現， 從歐盟招募新人要困難得多——尤其是護士。
A third of permanent workers supplying Britain with food are from the EU, according to the Food and Drink Federation. Hotels, restaurants and clubs have warned that their sector faces a shortfall of 60,000 workers a year if the number of EU migrants is sharply curtailed.
根據食品和飲料聯合會的資料， 英國有三分之一的永久工人是來自歐盟的。 酒店、餐館和俱樂部警告稱， 如果歐盟移民人數大幅減少， 他們的行業每年將面臨6萬名工人的用工缺口。
British farms are also heavily dependent on seasonal workers from the bloc.
英國農場也嚴重依賴于來自歐盟的季節性工人。
Labor economists say that a radical decline in immigration will hurt the British economy in the long run.
勞工經濟學家說， 從長遠來看， 移民的大幅減少會傷害英國經濟。