2017年7月4日, 國際學術權威刊物自然出版集團旗下子刊《Scientific Reports》雜誌線上發表了美國佛羅里達州立大學Ming Cai 教授研究組和中山大學楊崧教授團隊合作的題為“Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity”的研究論文。 研究突破了傳統從模式中氣候回饋強度差異角度尋求全球變暖預估不確定性的框架, 創新性地從模式的氣候態差異方面, 討論不同模式在同一情景下對未來全球變暖強度預估存在差異的原因。
與人類活動相關的溫室效應引起的全球變暖特徵穩定存在所有氣候模式類比結果中。 但是在相同的溫室氣體強迫下, 不同模式類比出的全球平均溫度升高的值存在顯著差異,
本項研究發現,
對全球變暖強度的預估是未來氣候預估的關鍵。 自工業革命以來,
31個耦合模式比較計畫第五階段(CMIP5)1pct/yr實驗中, 全球平均表面溫度隨年份的增加值。
31個1pct/yr實驗得到的全球平均表面溫度變化與(a)模式氣候態全球平均表面溫度(T)、雲冰/水含量(CL)、大氣-海洋能量輸運強度(|DYN|)、水汽含量(q)、冰覆蓋面積(IC)、感熱通量(SH)、水迴圈強度(|E-P|)和蒸發(E)的相關係數。
原文連結:
原文摘要:
Since Chaney’s report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2—from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C or greater —remains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models’ intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.