2017年3月10日, 國際頂尖學術期刊《Science》旗下《Science Advances》雜誌上線上發表了中國科學院大氣物理研究所成裡京博士研究組的一篇研究論文, 研究論文題為改進的歷史(1960-2015)海洋熱含量變化估計”(Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015)。 成裡京博士為論文第一作者和通訊作者。
溫室氣體不斷排放使得地球系統“困住”了更多的熱量, 直接驅動了全球變暖。 這些能量90%以上都存儲在海洋中, 因此海洋熱含量變化是氣候變化的一個核心指標, 對過去海洋熱含量進行估計是氣候變化研究的一個重要任務。 然而, 過去海洋到底變暖了多少?這一直是一個具有爭議性的問題:不同國際機構基於海洋觀測得到的估計各不相同、差異極大。
新研究提出了一個新的方法解決了這個問題:包括利用了氣候模型的集合類比結果提供多源補充資訊、增加了觀測的空間影響範圍、使用集合最優插值方法等等。 更重要的是, 該研究利用近期較為豐富的海洋觀測去評估重構的歷史熱含量變率在不同海盆和不同時間尺度的準確性,
OCEAN ENERGY BUDGET ESTIMATED BY CHENG ET AL. 2017. THE 93% OF THE ENERGY IMBALANCE OBSERVED FROM THE TOP OF ATMOSPHERE IS SHOWN IN YELLOW
原文連結:
原文摘要:
Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical recor(that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.