Alan Greenspan: 'We have a stock market bubble
by Matt Egan
Alan Greenspan is sounding the alarm about the booming stock market.
艾倫格林斯潘對繁榮的股市敲響了警鐘。
"There are two bubbles: We have a stock market bubble, and we have a bond market bubble," the former Federal Reserve chairman told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
前美聯儲主席在週三對彭博社表示：“有兩個泡沫:一個是股市泡沫， 另一個是債券市場泡沫。
The trouble in the bond market "will eventually be the critical issue," Greenspan said, adding that "for the short term it's not too bad."
格林斯潘說， 美聯儲主席在債券市場上的麻煩“最終將成為關鍵問題”， 並補充說， “短期來看， 這還不算太糟。 ”
（for the short term:短期來看）
Many Americans recall that Greenspan, known as the Maestro when he led the Fed, described the dotcom mania of the 1990s as "irrational exuberance." That memorable phrase, from late 1996, ended up being right -- albeit several years early. The Nasdaq didn't peak until March 2000.
許多美國人都記得， 格林斯潘在領導美聯儲時被稱為“大師”， 他將上世紀90年代的互聯網泡沫形容為“非理性繁榮”。 這個令人難忘的短語， 從1996年底開始， 最終是正確的——儘管早了幾年。 納斯達克指數直到2000年3月才見頂。
（know as:因...而成名；）
Greenspan, who was appointed Fed chair by both Republican and Democratic presidents, raised doubt in the interview about President Trump's economic agenda.
被共和黨和民主黨總統都曾任命為美聯儲主席的格林斯潘， 在採訪中對特朗普總統的經濟議程提出了質疑。
（raise doubt about:對...產生質疑）
"I was very much surprised that in the State of the Union all those new initiatives were not funded," Greenspan told Bloomberg.
格林斯潘對彭博社表示：“我對於國情咨文中的新計畫並沒有獲得資金支持表示非常驚訝。 ”
Trump's tax overhaul is expected to add to the federal deficit, something Greenspan has previously called a "mistake." Trump's plan to ramp up infrastructure spending could do the same. He has not detailed how he plans to pay for it.
預計特朗普的稅收改革將增加聯邦赤字， 這是格林斯潘之前所稱的“錯誤”。
Asked what happened to the "frugality and prudence of the GOP," Greenspan replied: "Good question. If you find out let me know."
當被問及“共和黨表現的節儉和謹慎”是因為發生了什麼時， 格林斯潘回答道:“好問題。 如果你知道， 讓我知道。 ”
（GOP：大哥党， 共和黨代稱）
The worry is that the government spending, from new programs and existing social safety nets, will blow a hole in the budget. That could cause interest rates to rise rapidly, speeding up inflation.
令人擔憂的是新項目投入和現有社會保障體系的政府支出， 這些將會在預算中出現漏洞。 這可能導致利率迅速上升， 從而加速通貨膨脹。
"We are dealing with a fiscally unstable long-term outlook in which inflation will take hold," Greenspan said. "We're working our way towards stagflation."
格林斯潘說:“我們正在處理一種財政前景不穩定的狀況， 通貨膨脹將會持續。 ”“我們正在朝著滯漲的方向努力。 ”
Greenspan's skepticism of the bond market isn't new -- or surprising. Last July he said that bonds, but not stocks, were in a bubble.
格林斯潘對債券市場的懷疑並不新鮮， 也不令人驚訝。 去年7月， 他說的是債券正處於泡沫之中， 而不是股票。
Bond prices have cooled since then, but the stock market has kept heating up. The Dow has zoomed another 4,000 points since mid-summer. Stocks retreated a bit this week: The Dow suffered its worst two-day percentage drop since September 2016.
自那以來， 債券價格已有所降溫，
There are valid reasons for stocks to be booming. The U.S economy is healthy, and the global economy is growing even faster. Corporate profits have never been higher -- and they're getting a big boost from the tax cut for businesses.
股市繁榮的理由有充分的理由。 美國的經濟是健康的， 全球經濟增長的更快。 企業利潤從來沒有更高過， 而且公司從企業的減稅政策中積極性得到了很大的提振。
The relentless rally has led some analysts to warn that the markets are in a "melt-up," a rapid rise in prices based on emotion, not fundamentals.
股價的反彈促使一些分析師警告稱， 市場正處於“快速上漲”的狀態， 價格的快速上漲是基於情緒， 而非基本面。
Greenspan is going a step further by calling the market an outright bubble. The Dow has surged 44% since Trump's election.
格林斯潘更進一步表示， 稱市場為“徹頭徹尾的泡沫”。 自特朗普當選以來， 道鐘斯指數已經飆升了44%。
Most market strategists acknowledge high levels of optimism, but not exuberance.
大多數市場戰略分析師都承認， 樂觀情緒很高， 但並情況不樂觀。
"I don't see big bubbles," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds. "I see small bubbles, but on a rising tide of enthusiasm."
“我沒有看到大的泡沫， ”摩根大通基金首席全球戰略分析師大衛凱利說。
Kelly said there is no "obvious bubble like tech stocks in 1999 and the housing bubble in 2007."
凱利說， 沒有“像1999年的科技股和2007年的房地產泡沫那樣明顯的泡沫。 ”
The overheated housing market last decade laid the groundwork for the 2008 financial crisis, the worst since the Great Depression.
過去10年過熱的房地產市場為2008年金融危機奠定了基礎， 這是自大蕭條以來最嚴重的一次。
The Federal Reserve has been criticized for helping to inflate the housing bubble by keeping interest rates too low. The leader of the Fed at the time? Alan Greenspan.
美聯儲一直因保持低利率而助長了房地產泡沫的膨脹。 當時的美聯儲主席是誰?艾倫•格林斯潘。