ONLY one thing spooks the oil market as much as hot-headed despots in the Middle East, and that is hot-headed hedge-fund managers. For the second time this year, record speculative bets on rising oil prices in American and European futures have made the market vulnerable to a sell-off. “You don’t want to be the last man standing,” says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank.
只有一件事使石油市場充滿恐慌， 猶如中東地區狂躁的獨裁者一般：一個魯莽的對沖基金經理。 美國和歐洲期貨市場上出現了年內第二次創記錄的看高石油價上升的投機行為，
On November 15th, the widely traded Brent crude futures benchmark, which had hit a two-year high of $64 a barrel on November 7th, fell below $62. America’s West Texas Intermediate also fell. The declines coincided with a sharp drop across global metals markets, owing to concern about slowing demand in China, which has clobbered prices of nickel and other metals that had hit multi-year highs. (In a sign of investor nervousness after a sharp rally this year in global stock and bond markets, high-yield corporate bonds also weakened significantly this week.)
11月15日， 交易量龐大的布倫特原油期貨基準價格下跌至62美元以下， 而在11月7日曾觸及兩年以來的最高點， 每桶64美元。 美國西德克薩斯中質原油期貨價格也在下跌。 巧合的是， 在原油期貨價格下跌的同時， 全球金屬市場也出現暴跌情況， 原因是人們擔心中國的需求放緩， 而這已讓多年位劇高點鎳和其他金屬價格倍受打壓。 (在今年全球股市和債券市場大幅反彈後， 令投資者感到緊張的跡象是高收益公司債券在本周也大幅下跌。 )
The reversal in the oil markets put a swift end to talk of crude shooting above $70 a barrel, which had gained strength after the detention in Saudi Arabia of dozens of princes and other members of the elite, and increasing tension between the Gulf states and Iran over Yemen and Lebanon. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which forecasts supply and demand, said on November 14th that it doubted $60 a barrel had become a new floor for oil. It did note, however, that geopolitical risk had become a salient factor in the market. Since Iraq seized back Kirkuk from Kurdish forces in October, shipments of Iraqi oil have fallen sharply. Mr Hansen says such tensions have added a $10 risk premium to a barrel of crude recently, but these can evaporate as quickly as they build.
石油市場的逆轉使得要讓上漲至每桶70美元的原油價格談判無疾而終，
Geopolitics aside, the two factors behind the volatility are familiar. Ever since prices crashed below $30 a barrel in early 2016, they have been most influenced by the strength of shale production in America; and the level of global inventories targeted by OPEC, the producers’ cartel, and non-OPEC sovereign producers like Russia.
撇開地緣政治不談， 石油價格波動背後的兩個因素是很類似。 自2016年初油價跌破每桶30美元以來，
Those bullish on oil prices say shale production is moderating as cash-strapped American producers tighten their belts. Wall Street has become less willing to supply equity to finance their expansion, unless they can produce oil profitably.
那些看漲油價的人士稱， 由於資金短缺的美國生產商捉襟見肘， 葉岩油產量正在放緩。 除非他們能盈利， 華爾街不太願意為他們的增產提供資金。
But the bears note that last week there was a rise in the rig count calculated by Baker Hughes, an oil-service provider, indicating that higher prices and more hedging activity is encouraging producers to ramp up again. And the IEA forecast this week that shale-oil production by 2025 will exceed that of even the biggest oilfield in Saudi Arabia (see chart). If true, that is a glaring long-term sell signal.
但看跌人士指出， 上周， 石油服務供應商貝克休斯計算出了鑽機數量出現上升， 這表明價格上漲和更多對沖活動正在促使生產商進行再次增產。 國際能源署本周預測， 到2025年， 葉岩油產量將超過沙烏地阿拉伯最大油田的產量(見圖表)。 如果這是真的， 那就是一個明顯的長期看空的信號。
As for inventories, bears say the data suggest stocks of crude and petroleum products in America are still excessive. That puts pressure on OPEC and non-OPEC producers, which meet in Vienna on November 30th, to extend supply cuts that were due to expire in March 2018. As usual before the meeting, those participating—especially Russia—are arguing over the pros and cons. It may take bigger cuts than anticipated, or a genuine geopolitical crisis, to make the hedge funds bullish again.
至於庫存， 看跌人士表示， 資料顯示， 美國的原油和石油產品庫存仍然很高。 這給石油輸出國組織和非石油輸出國組織成員的產油國帶來了壓力。 他們將於11月30日在維也納召開會議， 將延長原定於2018年3月到期的減產。 像往常一樣， 那些參加會議的國家， 特別是俄羅斯， 正在爭論利弊， 可能會比預期削減更多， 或者是真正的地緣政治危機，
編譯：靳婷
審校：馬佳藝
編輯：翻吧君